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    December 30

    改革与变革者的命运都是注定的吗?

     

    改革与变革者的命运都是注定的吗?

     

    对于这句话,我的观察是:绝大多数国人并没有去在意它;少数勤于思考的人似乎又存在一个思索或实践后得出的共识”:在中国,改革者们不但承受着巨大的压力,担负着巨大的风险,而且他们的终极命运基本上是相同的,或曰殊途同归:“失败两个字!轻则所推行的改革新政人走茶凉(当今中国有过很多这样的例子,多发生在基层),重则不但过往一切努力灰飞烟灭,身家性命丢了不说,株连九族,永世不得翻身也非罕见.这种定律背后是铁一般的历史史实.如我们都知道的商鞅变法”, “王安石变法以及明朝的张居正所推行的变革等,没有一个是善终的.商鞅居然惨到被五马分尸,张居正也是尸骨未寒便遭鞭尸,而晚清时期康梁的宪政变革更让参与者或遭屠杀,或流落异域他乡,可谓惨当不堪回首.

     

    可奇怪的是,他们身后好象总又不缺后来追随者.他们的名声虽然随着后来当政者的好恶或现实需要也会经常翻来覆去,一时在天堂里享受着来自尘世间的万民称颂,一时又在地狱里忍受十八层之上的万般吐弃,但总的来说好象还是多于”,因而总能激发后来者发奋图强,更加精密地筹划,精心地组织,也更加坚定不移地在局部贯彻实践.直至当代,我们不是还在不断地改革吗?我们目前身处其中的改革命运还会一如既往吗?不过,在分析回答这个问题之前,我觉得有必要弄清楚历史上的变革在什么地方,现在的改革正在什么?我们真正需要什么样的改革”?搞清楚这些问题对于我们能否正确回答标题的设问至关重要.

     

    据史料记载,商鞅变法主要从经济和政治两方面着手.经济变法的主要措施为:废井田,开阡陌,畅农抑商,还有后来为秦始皇统一中国后所采用的统一度量衡等.这些措施使得秦国得以后来居上,国力大大增强,最终统一中国;而政治上推行的措施主要包括:励军功,实行二十等爵制; 废除世卿世禄制,鼓励宗室贵族建立军功;改革户籍制度,实行连坐法;推行县制;定秦律,“燔诗书而明法令.这些举措固然强化了中央集权,增加了中央财政,更使民众人人自危,但其法令只是从统治阶级立场出发,根本不足与当今普世价值并论,不过这都不是要害,关键是其中的除世卿世禄制极大地伤及既得利益阶层,为他所推行的自上而下的改革与最终遭遇报复埋下伏笔.

     

    而王安石变法是在北宋人到中年,然频露暮年之色,各种疾病缠身,积贫积弱的情况下不得已而为之的自救举措.虽然变革后,回光返照的北宋又得以苟延了一段时间,但整个改革前后也只有15年左右时间.其后,由于改革侵害了诸多士大夫和王公贵族的既得利益而遭完全废止.同样,他的改革也秉承了商鞅的套路自上而下地推行,目的在于富国进而强兵”.由于没有民众的参与,只能通过既有的官僚体系来贯彻.人性的弱点使得官僚们在没有权力约束的体制里当然只会以自己的利益为第一出发点,有利者趋之,无利者避之,有害者抗之,结果可想而知,官僚圈里的游戏当然只能落个人走茶凉的结局.

     

    明朝张居正的改革是在人类社会已经出现资本主义萌芽时期推行的,虽然在形式上它比王安石的变法要和缓许多,但由于其改革高举的是政必法祖的旗帜,与王安石之祖宗不足法相比,足见其改革的局限性和逆历史潮流性.打着复兴祖宗社稷的旗号,虽然可以规避保守势力一时攻击,却无法铲除既得利益集团赖以寄生的制度土壤.由于祖法实为家法”,恢复的是祖宗的荣耀”,民众岂有心悦诚服地追随它的理由乎?作旁观状已经是最好的结果了.但由于他的一条鞭法毕竟触及了既得利益,故而不可避免地招致了既得利益者们的强烈反对.其中的调查户口,测量耕田,整理税赋,裁减官员,缩小机关编制等,都直接伤害到了统治阶级的利益,所以他们的抵制与反扑是异常猛烈的.在张居正死后,张家被抄没家产,张家十余口被活活饿死.但他的所作所为仍然是自上而下的行为,不仅缺乏民众基础,而且一开始就把与民众利益攸关的改革与这一利益相关者”(Stack-holders)隔离开来,还是一套内部游戏在演绎,岂有不被废之理?

     

    康有为所推行的改革,1860年代满清官僚们自发搞的洋务运动不同.洋务运动不过是经济上的一些革新举措,重点在于引进夷技”;改良武器,以便更有效地镇压家奴和抵御夷患(很象我们已经进行了近30年的经济改革)进而达到固我大清之本的目的,而康有为的改革重点则在于政治体制.这种改革首先触动的就是那些满清贵族的利益,他们向来以汉族的统治者自居,从他们出生的那天起,制度就已经为他们铺就了足以令他们过上荣华富贵生活的仕途阶梯,所以对康有为的改革,他们就象被挑了巢的马蜂一般,惊慌失措,奔走呼嚎.

     

    清史中有这样一段记述:身为满族人的监察部御史文祥就曾警告光绪皇帝:“维新党的目的,只在救中国,不在救清王朝.”文祥的这一见解随之成了满清贵族们反维新的理论依据,他们就曾誓言:“宁予友邦,不予家奴!”(何以至此?中国文化,尤其是封建政治文化对于人性的既极端漠视又反过来进一步强化人性恶的一面是一个非常值得探究的问题,以后有时间再来分析这一现象),而以掌握中央军权的满州人荣禄为首的王公大臣们,则日夜在慈禧太后的身边哭诉清王朝满州人的危机,再加上袁世凯的告密,历时103,图谋自强救国的维新运动终于以失败而告终.

     

    中国的历史一再告诉人们,如果只是等待一场自上而下的改革运动的话,其结局只能是水中捞月.在社会下层的民众还没有觉醒,在既得利益集团还没有受到来自下层民众足够的压力之前,既得利益者们绝对不会做出利益上的让步或放弃自己的大部分利益.这是个基本常识的问题.然而,对于那些没有或故意忽略这种常识的研究者们来说,他们的研究成果中出现高度一致结论也就不足为怪了.这种高度一致的潜台词多半是:不要改革,不要当出头鸟,当官者当得过且过,予人方便,于己方便(此地之当万万不可与我等草民”,“贱民亦或是家奴们并论!),“中庸为上,或许还有多捞些个人好处才是上举,等等等等

     

    1978年改革开放后我们也经历过五次改革”(这里只言行政方面的动作).这是些什么样的改革呢?简言之就是对现有机构进行几次合并的游戏.每次合并的结果是看上去机构数目减少了,但是,短则一个年头,长不过两载,这些压缩裁减后的机构或恢复原样,或换个名目出现,很多时候还会裂变出更多的机构.现如今,国务院直辖的部委级,国家局级,或其它名目的部级”,“准部级机构有近两百个就是最好的证明.这些机构很多职能彼此重叠.由于存在各自利益的考量,在宏观甚至微观层面上我们就经常见到中央政策相互矛盾,稍加审视就可发现这些矛盾的背后是各个部门的利益在作怪.现代政府作为提供公共服务的主体,所发布的政策法令却以自身的利益为第一考量,岂不怪乎?(依现在当政者的观念水平倒也不怪!)事实是:当有利可图时,大家争着出国家政策”,无利时则互相推诿,惟恐避之不及.奇怪的是我们的政府极善踢皮球,而我们的足球队却可以说最不擅长踢真正的皮球,想一想你或可发现这与我们政府的善踢文化也有着不可分割的干系.

     

    据说,明年三月新一届人大要进行中央政府新一轮机构改革,要动真格”.根据建立一个服务型政府,一个大社会小政府的要求来进行部委合并重组,实行大部委制,“逐渐退出微观层面利益争夺,变审批制为核准制(这里逐渐二字可不能小看咯.这可是一个法宝,伸缩空间可是很大哟!),向专事提供公共服务,调节收入分配,化解社会矛盾等政府本位职能复归,不知结果又将如何?在我看来,政府机构改革的思路也许必须从厘清权责界限开始,这是避免以后再扯皮和政出多门的必要前提.还有政府部门的权力必须要有法律依据,全国人大没有相关的法律通过,还是任由部委按照自己的意志来颁布行政法令,结果一定是与现在差不多,甚至更糟.现在无所不在的大政府不仅导致行政效率低下,大量浪费纳税人钱财,还直接造成了社会关系紧张,环境恶化,资源浪费,社会发展难以为继,严重阻碍生产力的提高和企业竞争力的挖掘与发挥,其结果当然是国家竞争力的低下.在全球化时代这只能意味着落后,更落后.

     

    但要想让这些预计中的改革不重走过去的老路,必须首先坚决摒弃过往改革的套路,使民众积极参与其中,要向广大公民积极宣传改革的意义和必要性,强化公民权利意识,建立一套行之有效而又得到法律(最好是宪法层面的)保障的民众意志发挥效用的机制,促成整个社会参与改革的氛围,以给予阻碍改革的既得利益群体强大的社会压力.如能辅之以干部制度(或称吏制)改革,使其中包含更多民众评价因素,使官员们改变只懂得向上看的习性”,那么改革成功的几率必将倍增.在信息化,互联网化的当今世界,传播的渠道已经存在,要很好地加以利用,厦门的PX项目就是一个很好的例证.

     

    政治的本质本来就是关于所有人利益的事,把绝大多数利益主体排除在外既不合情理,也与当今世界的潮流相违背.中国封建时代所进行的多次改革之所以以失败告终,除了改革自身的局限性以外,那些所谓的改革实际上是在不触及制度根本的前提下所做的操作层面上的改良,早期或可有一定成效,但到封建末期,由于守成者们日趋保守以及自身利益的相对固化,改革也只是做做花样子,为的是暂时缓和社会矛盾,以使当下的统治得以苟延更长一些.由于没有审视制度的根本性缺陷,其失败是必然的.改革者或许很有抱负,但终将难逃失败的宿命,这是历史的悲哀,但不代表当今的改革一定会重蹈覆辙.更何况,现今的国际环境远不是封建时代可比,世界潮流更不是中世纪欧洲政教合一的黑暗,也不是资本主义初期的只有血腥和利益.我认为以美国为首的主要发达国家在推行政策时,除了利益,不可否认的一点是,他们还有着民主价值的考量.虽然我们常看到美国不得不与包括朝鲜这样的独裁政权打交道,但它绝对是在两害中取其轻,并不代表它放弃了自己的价值原则,否则,我们很难解释美国为何为了2300万人的台湾而冒险与中国大陆为敌.中国实现民主后,即使在各方面超越美国,它也很难找到借口挑衅我们,因为它的制度和成熟的公民文化决定了它不可能那么做,而民主的中国必然是更加透明的中国,必然是更加融入世界的中国,更频繁地与世界互动的中国,当然也会是更加得到世界信任的中国.这样的世界能不更加美好吗?如果我们依然坚持现在的实际上为少数人或既得利益集团绑架了的政治制度,从长远(也许并不要想象的那么久)来讲,没有任何人可以享受心安理得的富裕生活.当国人多数意识到这点时,中国的改革和中国人未来的命运还需要我们太过担心吗?

     

    December 24

    Merry Christmas!

     
    Merry Christmas!
     
    December 15

    What can we learn from the Rape of Nanking?

     

    Yesterday was the 70th anniversary of the starting of the month-long Nanking Massacre or the Rape of Nanking/Nanjing, the Capital City of the Republic of China at that time. The massacre had an estimated death toll of around 300,000 people, some surrendered soldiers, most civilians, children and women making a very significant part of the total. This atrocity, as always, never ceases its tremendous power to arouse a very strong indignant feeling among most Chinese, few exceptions. No matter how reasonable or cool you might be, going through all those documents and photos only serves to reinforce this strong feeling of rage!

     

    Rage, a very strong feeling of anger, usually reveals someone’s very strong, sometimes an uncontrollable desire to take revenge on people who have ignited this largely unhealthy state of mind. So, on days like yesterday, you would read huge pieces of comments from ordinary Chinese on the internet, mostly in their extreme language, to lash out at the Japanese, indiscriminately, as if the Japanese are only one person, one mind, and forever the same mentality, past and present. Anyone who ever tries to make a fact-of-matter analysis would surely be inviting personal attack, mostly character attack. So, my feeling is that most Chinese internet surfers are in no way a gathering of sensible minds.

     

    As a Chinese, I am by no means for the atrocity. It’s simply an act against humanity. We all should unite to let our voices heard, to let those in power feel ‘people power’, as Al Gore put it when he was relating the on-going global environmental movement, to tell the world that we don’t ever want this happen to us anymore. Voices can and should be heard in more than one way. In a democratic society, you can vote to express your feelings; you can write an essay to elaborate your opinion; and you can also set up a citizens’ group to actually start doing something to make a difference…… In China, all that simply does not exist. So, here I would like to take advantage of this little piece of "the land of freedom" to make my points on this historic event.

     

    Anyone who have ever read Iris Chang’s (张纯如) book “The Rape of Nanking” would surely be shocked by the horrible atrocity the Japanese military did in late 1937, when the Japanese army started a campaign against the Chinese military. After series of fierce battle, the Japanese finally took control of Nanking. Because of the unexpected heavy casualties suffered during the campaign, they started to take revenge on civilians. That’s how the massacre got started, and the final situation and the sufferings people of Nanking had experienced were the major focus of the book. What I want to do here is to ask a question: how come such an atrocity took place in the first place?!

     

    As you all know, over the past 2000 years, except the later 300 years or so, China, as a country or a political entity, never really fell too much behind other countries or civilizations. In fact, it maintained some sort of a lead in quite a significant portion of that time span. When it comes to agricultural civilization, China indeed made its contribution. Yet, China’s ‘prosperity’ has a very distinctive or peculiar ‘characteristics’ ---- a periodic ‘prosperity’. Nothing accidental, in fact, these ‘prosperities’ corresponded very well to the changes of who was on the throne, namely, which family name became the most prominent “SURNAME” of the country, or in a more realistic sense, the big family called China. At the early stages of the founding of each of these big families, the founders knew very well how tough it was to build a stable, prosperous, and harmonious family. Usually they worked very hard, treated people well...... During these early stages of each Dynasty, relatively open-minded and enlightened emperors, coupled with the wisdom of many talented individuals, helped to build a peaceful, prosperous stable ‘family country’. Because of its sheer size, nobody really dare or want to challenge this giant when it largely solved its own problems. As a consequence, external environment was generally pretty stable too.

     

    Usually 2, 3, sometimes, 4 & 5 generations later, the one in power, having no idea of what ‘hardship’ or ‘difficulty’ was, either became an idiot himself or absolutely an incapable ruler. If he was an idiot, then hard time and sufferings of common people began, for the simple reason that his power was never challenged, checked or counter-balanced. They usually lived an extremely extravagant life style, unimaginably wasteful public spending, and of course, very high and intolerable tax burden surely followed. The lives of the most majority started to turn into hell, while most officials, using their unchecked power, stepped up suppressing peasants, collecting their own wealth with whatever means available to them. With all these, one day those peasants decided that there was no way to carry on their lives anymore. Living only meant a few more months or years of sufferings, picking up weapons or uprising against the ‘family boss’ might mean to die sooner, but it might also represent a chance to be the boss himself later. This very simple logic can also be applied to all “Dynasties” throughout Chinese history. “History repeats itself” become a “universal law” in China!

     

    Before the industrial revolution, this self-fulfilling dynasty reshuffle "mechanism" seemed to work ok, although by no means a well running system at all. Industrial revolution changed all that, especially after the “Opium War” in 1840, when merely 2000 British soldiers easily crushed the “Chinese Army”, largely armed with crude weapons which passed from generation to generation for more than a thousand years. Facing such a humiliating defeat, the government or the family boss simply refused to accept the fact, and still called these apparently more sophisticated civilization as “夷技”, a derogative term used to describe the technology developed by non-Chinese, and continued to cheat themselves, as well as their ‘subjects’ that only Chinese civilization was the best. Never bother to be modest and learn from others. The consequence was all that we have already known: repeated humiliation, repeated defeats, Japanese invasion… and the follow-up occupation of then the most developed part of China served only to strike another heavy blow to the stupid, and also very much a Big-Ego-Minded regime. How come could all these have happened? Simple enough! Because the “family boss” controlled everything! Ordinary people are nothing but some more personal belongings of the “Big Boss”. You say of the right of freedom, the right to life, or an inborn right to pursue happiness? Never heard of it!

     

    So, my point is that we shouldn’t blame too much on the Japanese, especially ordinary Japanese people living in today’s generally free, well-educated, and also, probably, much more enlightened society. To prevent history from repeating itself again in the future, the most urgent thing for the government to do now is to carry out meaningful reform of the system. Without an upside-down overhaul of this ugly backward political system, Chinese people will never be able to live an honorable life. And the Japanese might never invade China anymore, willingly or unwillingly, present or future, Chinese people, in my view, are still the second class “citizens” of the world, for the simple reason that they do not enjoy the basic human rights many other peoples have been enjoying for many years already. Another bad thing about all these "official" commemorating of the Rape of Nanking is that it might give this government another chance to serve its own purposes: misleading the mass one more time, diverting attention from those really serious domestic problems: economic inequality, institutional prejudices, crimes, environmental pollution, education and health problems as well as the urgently-needed very basic social security network….. When China one day does abandon its notorious political system, not only will Chinese people go through a reborn process or resurrection, the whole world would have a better and safer place to live in too. Only then can we proclaim that the long sufferings of Chinese people have finally come to an end!